Mastering Mortgage Rates in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide to Influences and Trends Affecting Your Home Loan

Understanding the factors that influence Canadian mortgage rates is crucial for homeowners and prospective buyers alike. In this comprehensive guide, we delve into the key determinants shaping the borrowing landscape in Canada, and subsequently, in Montréal. From government bonds and energy prices to the intricate ties with the U.S. economy, we explore how each element impacts mortgage rates. 

Bond Yields

Government bonds in Canada are essentially loans you give to the Canadian government. In return, the government agrees to pay you back with interest after a set period. These bonds impact interest rates in Canada through several mechanisms:

1. Benchmark for Rates: The rates of Canadian government bonds often serve as a benchmark for other interest rates throughout the country. If the rates on these bonds increase, other rates, like those for mortgages or business loans, generally tend to rise as well. 
2. Money Supply: When the Canadian government issues bonds, it collects money, which can reduce the amount of money available for lending in the broader economy. This reduction can cause interest rates to go up. 
3. Investor Sentiment: If investors are confident about the economy, they might choose riskier investments over government bonds. This can lead to higher yields (interest rates) on bonds, influencing other interest rates in Canada.
4. Central Bank Actions: The Bank of Canada, like other central banks, uses government bonds to manage the nation’s money supply and interest rates. By buying or selling government bonds, the Bank of Canada can influence interest rates across the economy.

In simple terms, Canadian government bonds play a crucial role in determining borrowing costs for various purposes, from purchasing homes to funding business ventures in Canada.

More info: How Are Bond Yields Affected by Monetary Policy? – Investopedia

Energy Prices

Energy prices can affect mortgage rates due to their impact on inflation and the overall cost of living. Here’s how it works:

1. Higher Energy Costs and Inflation:When energy prices, such as the cost of oil, increase, it can lead to higher production expenses for businesses. As businesses face increased costs, they may pass these expenses on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. This overall increase in prices is known as inflation.
2. Lender Response to Inflation: To cope with the higher cost of living caused by inflation, lenders, including banks, may adjust interest rates. This adjustment acts as a financial shield against the rising cost of goods and services. If lenders anticipate that inflation will erode the purchasing power of money over time, they might raise interest rates to maintain their profit margins.
3. Impact on Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates are influenced by broader economic factors, and inflation is one of them. If inflation is expected to rise due to higher energy costs, lenders may increase mortgage rates to account for the anticipated decrease in the value of money over time.

In summary, when energy prices go up, it can contribute to inflation, and lenders may adjust mortgage rates to counteract the effects of inflation on the cost of living. This is part of how various economic factors, including energy prices, can play a role in shaping mortgage rates in Canada.

More info: Energy prices are driving inflation. What will central banks do? – BNN Bloomberg 

US Economy

In simple terms, the U.S. economy influences Canada’s economy, and this connection can impact Canada’s mortgage rates. Here’s how:

1. Trade and Economic Ties: Canada and the United States have a strong economic relationship. They trade a lot of goods and services with each other. When the U.S. economy does well, it often means Americans are buying more from Canada. This boosts the Canadian economy.
2. Interest Rates and Investment: The U.S. Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, sets interest rates. Changes in U.S. interest rates can attract or discourage global investors, including those in Canada. If U.S. rates go up, investors might move money to the U.S. for better returns. To stay competitive, Canadian lenders may adjust their rates, including mortgage rates.
3. Global Economic Conditions: The U.S. is a major player in the global economy. Changes in U.S. economic conditions, like interest rate shifts or economic growth, can impact investor confidence worldwide. If the U.S. economy is doing well, it generally has a positive effect on global economic conditions.
4. Currency Exchange Rates: The value of the Canadian dollar often depends on how the U.S. dollar is doing. When the U.S. economy strengthens, the U.S. dollar may appreciate. A higher U.S. dollar can make Canadian exports more attractive, but it can also make imported goods more expensive. This dynamic can influence inflation and, subsequently, interest rates.
5. Mortgage Rates Response: In response to changes in global economic conditions and investor behavior influenced by the U.S. economy, Canadian lenders may adjust mortgage rates. For example, if the U.S. raises interest rates, Canadian lenders might follow suit to attract or retain investors.

In summary, the health of the U.S. economy affects Canada through trade, investment, and global economic conditions. These factors, in turn, can influence Canadian mortgage rates as lenders respond to changes in the broader economic environment shaped, in part, by the U.S. economy.

More Info: The ‘sugar rush’ effect: Why the U.S. economy is growing faster than Canada’s – CBC News 

As the U.S. economy goes so goes Canada’s 

Inflation

Inflation plays a pivotal role in shaping economic policies, including those related to mortgage rates. Here’s how:

1. Central Bank Response to Inflation: When inflation increases, the Bank of Canada may respond by raising the benchmark interest rate to curb rising prices. A higher benchmark rate leads to increased borrowing costs for financial institutions.
2. Passing on Higher Costs: To maintain profitability, banks often pass on the elevated borrowing costs to consumers. This is typically done by adjusting mortgage rates upward.

In summary, the ebb and flow of inflation in Canada can directly impact mortgage rates, with the central bank’s response serving as a crucial determinant. Homeowners and prospective buyers should stay informed about these dynamics to make well-informed decisions in the real estate market.

More info: Monetary policy – Bank of Canada

Government Housing Policies

Canada’s government policies influence mortgage rates through regulations that impact borrowing and homeownership. Here’s a breakdown:

1. Borrowing Limits and Affordability: The government establishes rules governing the amount of money banks can lend to homebuyers, ensuring they can afford their mortgages.This helps maintain a balance between homeownership aspirations and financial responsibility.
2. Incentives for Homebuyers: Government programs and incentives, such as tax credits or grants, may be introduced to boost homebuying activity. These incentives can influence the demand for mortgages, subsequently affecting mortgage rates based on market dynamics.
3. Regulatory Criteria for Lenders: Regulatory bodies, like OSFI, set criteria that lenders must follow when assessing borrowers’ ability to navigate potential financial challenges.Changes in these criteria impact who qualifies for a mortgage and how much they can borrow, thereby influencing overall mortgage rates.

In essence, government policies play a pivotal role in shaping the landscape of mortgage lending by influencing both the demand for mortgages and the criteria lenders use to set rates. 

More info: How does the rising stress test impact mortgage affordability? – Ratehub.ca 

Market Volatility

Market volatility can influence mortgage rates in Canada due to two main factors: 

1. Investor Sentiment: When the market experiences significant ups and downs, investors may become more cautious and seek safer investments. For instance, during uncertain economic times, investors might move away from riskier assets, like mortgage-backed securities, prompting lenders to adjust rates to attract funding.
2. Cost of Funding for Lenders: Lenders need money to lend, and disruptions or uncertainties in financial markets can affect their borrowing costs. In times of market instability, lenders may face higher costs when borrowing money, leading them to increase mortgage rates to maintain their profit margins.

Essentially, market volatility creates uncertainty, affecting investor confidence and the cost of funding. These factors, in turn, can prompt adjustments to mortgage rates as lenders respond to changing market conditions.

More info: What Is Market Sentiment? Definition, Indicator Types, and Example – Investopedia 

Bank Funding Costs

Banks require funds to provide loans, including mortgages. The way they obtain these funds can be influenced by changes in the global economic climate or disruptions in financial markets. Here’s how it works:

1. Global Economic Climate: If global interest rates rise, banks may face higher costs when borrowing money. This is because the interest rates at which banks borrow from each other or from the central bank are influenced by broader global economic conditions.
2. Disruptions in Financial Markets: Unforeseen events or disruptions in financial markets can impact the cost of funds for banks. For example, if there’s increased uncertainty in financial markets, investors might demand higher returns to lend money, leading to higher costs for banks.

In response to these factors, banks may adjust the interest rates they charge on mortgages. If their funding costs increase, they may raise mortgage rates to maintain their profit margins. Essentially, the cost of obtaining the funds that banks lend to homebuyers plays a crucial role in determining mortgage rates in Canada.

More info: Financial System Review—2023 – Bank of Canada 

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned investor, understanding these factors and influences on mortgage rates is key to making informed decisions in the  Montréal real estate market. We hope this guide was helpful! 

Curious about your potential mortgage rates? Check out RateHub’s mortgage calculator.

Looking for professional advice? Explore our list of trusted Mortgage Specialists.